UK among worst hit as Carat revises global ad spend predictions

LONDON - Global advertising expenditure is set to fall 5.8% this year, with drops in every major market except China, according to revised forecasts published by Carat today.

The UK is expected to be among the worst hit by a "more cautious approach to spending", with the Aegis agency predicting falls of 7.1% instead of the 2.2% increase it forecast last August.

The dramatic revision follows drops of 5.5% in UK ad spend in 2008, the biggest decline of any major market other than Spain (-12.7%).

Growth of 2.2% is expected to return to the UK by 2010, but this is set against 2009's poor performance.

Elsewhere in Western Europe, single digit drops in spend are expected in France (-5%) and Italy (-7%) this year, while advertising in Spain is again forecast to contract, this time by 16.5%.

A fall of 9.8% is forecast for the US, the world's largest advertising market, followed by a slight 0.7% lift in 2010.

Germany and Canada appear less volatile, in relative terms, with 2009 expected to record drops of 2.2% and 2.5% respectively. China is the only ad market still expected to grow, although its rise of 4.6% is well below the 10.9% Carat forecast for it last year.

Jerry Buhlmann, chief executive of Aegis Media, said the figures reflect the "widespread adoption of a much more cautious approach to spending in the face of widespread economic uncertainty".

But he also identified signs for optimism, noting that the UK, parts of Europe and Asia are all expected to stablise in 2010.

He added: "In an environment where clients are focusing on the value they can get from their media spend, they want proven and accountable communications. This could be one reason for the relative resilience we are seeing in TV and online."

Source: http://www.mediaweek.co.uk, March